Just wondering why, after all the “worst case scenario” stuff has all fallen together, Hurricane andy is still only a category 1 hurricane. Is it fairly weak, just insanely large? What’s the deal?
Chosen Answer:
Sandy has picked up speed and is moving faster. If this trend continues, it may reduced the severity of this storm. Even with this good news, it is still a very serious and potentially very dangerous storm.
It is scary because we have never seen this happen before in modern weather…so there are uncertainties of exactly what will happen. What is forecast happen is something we have only experience with computer scenarios. So what we are about to see, we have never seen before except in theory.
The following are some of the factors that make this storm more dangerous than the usual CAT one hurricane storm.
1. Yes, this is a Cat one hurricane, but a Cat one hurricane rating only tells you the maximum sustained winds at its current status. Unlike other hurricanes, this storm may increase in strength as it moves inland and falls under the influence of a strong trough and strong jet stream. This is very unusual as this very wet and moist tropical storms meets up with cold air associated with mid latitude jet making this a very heavy precipitation maker.
2. The winds of this hurricane will not weaken like most hurricane. As a matter of fact, it may get stronger once it moves inland. Why will this happen? It is because the winds will be strong initially from the hurricane. Once the hurricane moves onshore, it will merge with a winter storm. So basically, you have a very cold and wet storm meeting a very warm and extremely wet storm. So the strong low level winds of hurricane will combined with the mixing down of the jet stream winds to the surface. Then you add to the fact that the surface pressure gradient resulting from the very warm air meeting very cold air. So winds are not expected to come down like other hurricanes that moves inland.
3. This hurricane is huge in size as far as diameter is concern. Due to this size, it will have more water, thus a much larger storm surge coming onshore. A storm surge is like a mound of water. Once the water level rises, it will not come down until this mound of passes. Add to the fact that it may come in on high tide will make worse.
4. Due to the size of this hurricane, close to a thousand miles wide and the fact that it may slow down once the core of this storm moves inland, This will result in a long period of strong gusty winds and heavy precipitation. This storm will last one to three days…maybe more. It may even become stationary and not move for for a period of times inland. The latest news is that it has picked up speed over the over the past few hours and that is good news.
5, For some people will get flooding from warm windy flooding rains, followed by freezing colds weather. So after the warm flooding rain being followed by blizzard conditions with the passage of a very strong cold front.
The combination of this factors makes the a very windy storm and a very wet storm with a high storm surge moving inland this evening. So it can stay wet and wild with damaging winds and potentially deadly floods and flash flooding conditions lasting for two to three days. Add to the fact that embedded tornadoes, even though the chances are low, may still form in this mess, may make this one of the strongest storms we ever seen by those who are in the path of this storm.
The worse part of this storm will be the flood and flash flooding except for the coastal areas where the storm surge will bring flood water levels higher than most CAT 1 hurricanes.. So be ready to get to high ground as water can rise very rapidly. This flooding and flash flooding threat will continue.for a relatively long period of time.
So it is not the fact that it is a CAT one storm that makes this storm dangerous, it is the fact that this storm is is expected to go through rapid changes once it makes it inland and go through rapid changes as it merges with a mid latitude changing from a warm core tropical cyclone to a Nor’easter type system. You know that that this hurricane like one that we have never seen before simply due to that fact that how many hurricane you have seen in the past is expected to make it inland and will result in a blizzard forming after24 to 48 hours after landfall. You have hurricane warning out and winter storm warning out for a tropical cyclone making landfall. So you really can’t compare this storm with any other CAT one hurricane. This storm will. be very unique. What is the biggest threat with this system is the flood and flash flood from the storm surge and heavy rain. Also, the CAT rating is based on the maximum sustained winds of a hurricane, In this case, the strongest winds will be in the form of strong wind gusts due to the the powerful jet stream winds being mixed to the low levels of the atmosphere. So what you may get are sustained winds of 80 mph with occasional dangerous ands damaging wind.gusts of 150 mph. Because the sustain winds are only 80 mph, it will still be a CAT one storm.
by: UALog
on: 4th November 12